Usporeni rast i razvoj Srbije – uzroci i posledice

Abstract

U radu se pošlo od potrebe da se oceni moguća dinamika razvoja Srbije do kraja ove decenije. Naime, nakon brzog ekonomskog rasta u periodu 2001–2008. godina, u periodu krize, poslednjih šest godina, Srbija je imala (prosečan) nulti privredni rast. Brojni su problemi i razvojna ograničenja sa kojima se domaća privreda suočava u ovom trenutku. Osim demografskih problema, to su problemi javne potrošnje, spoljnotrgovinske razmene, unutrašnjeg i spoljnog duga, problem lošeg privrednog ambijenta i vođenje neadekvatne ekonomske i razvojne politike. Zbog navedenih razloga, a uzimajući u obzir relevantne projekcije razvoja za naredni period, došlo se do procene da će do kraja ove decenije privredni rast biti spor, tj. između 2 i 3% mereno rastom BDP-a prosečno godišnje. Ovakva dinamika rasta kvalitativno bi rezultirala daljim zaostajanjem za zemljama u tranziciji kao i za kakvim-takvim držanjem koraka prema razvijenim zemljama.

The paper started with the need to access the possible development dynamism of Serbia until the end of this decade. Namely, after speedy economic growth in the period 2001-2008, in the crisis period, during the last six years, Serbia faced with zero rate of growth. There are numerous development problems and limits which domestic economy is faced with in this moment. These are demographic problems, problems of public consumption, foreign exchange problems, internal and external debt, non - stimulative business environment and non - adequate economic and development policies. Taking into consideration several available, relevant development projections for the future period, it was accessed that rate of growth would be 2-3% as average GDP growth. In qualitative terms such a dynamic means that Serbia in the future would lag behind other economies in transition and at the same time development distance with developed countries would stay as it is now.