An ex ante evaluation of sustainable development: The case of "Kolubara" mining basin

Abstract

The "Kolubara" Basin faces a number of complex economic, social, ecological and spatial problems, out of which some seriously hinder its future development prospects. The past development pattern, being still largely practiced, has resulted in a number of negative effects. On the other hand, already reached development level, industrial culture and abundant natural, human and other resources of the region, picture its future in a brighter light. In order to get more reliable insights in the factors at work and their impact, in this paper an ex ante evaluation of general development options of the region is undertaken, by applying a combined approach and method. The results of the analysis, however unequivocal, point to a general conclusion - that the region may embark upon a new mode of development, e.g., that of the sustainability paradigm, provided a number of steps are timely undertaken to remove at least some negative effects of the past development, and to diminish the impact of negative existing factors. Also, considerable support would be needed on the part of the Republican level, as the local (regional) actors, acting alone, would not be able to make best use of the "territorial capital" of this region.