Dasymetric modelling of population dynamics in urban areas [Dasimetrično modeliranje dinamike prebivalstva na urbanih območjih]

Abstract

Solving the problem of publicly available census data disaggregation has preoccupied numerous researchers intensively A noteworthy advance in the methodology was made thanks to the contemporary storage and presentation of spatial and socio-economic data in the GIS environment. It is also important that a large number of auxiliary databases (satellite images, theme layers pertaining to land use and land cover, etc.) are publicly available and are periodically supplemented at increasingly shorter time intervals. Soil sealing databases are another class of auxiliary databases that pertain to land areas which have, due to anthropogenic influences, become a water-impermeable layer and indicate the level of spatial development and spatial contents that correlate to the population distribution. The soil sealing database can be a useful tool for dasymetric mapping of population when combined with town planning documentation that describes land use and height of residential buildings. The results of such mapping can help monitor the spatio-temporal dynamics of population trends in periods between two censuses. This study presents a methodology in which a soil-sealing database is combined with auxiliary data in a test area covered by the Master Plan of the Belgrade City, with census data from the year 2002 and the results of the year 2011. The results of the model validation indicate application of the proposed methodology in highly urbanised areas.