Population dynamics and land cover changes of urban areas

Abstract

In order to enable efficient management of spatial development of cities, it is essential to analyse changes in land cover, in the 'consumption' of the land surrounding cities and the attained rationality with respect to the use of already urban land (reflected in the urban population density). This paper provides an overview of the land cover changes in the period between 1990 and 2006, and the potential correlation between the dynamics of the total population change on the one hand, and the land cover change on the other. The initial hypotheses of this paper are: (1) occupation and sealing of productive soil in peri-urban zones is not proportional to the population dynamics of cities and their metropolitan areas; and (2) expansion of soil sealing in peri-urban zones is not significantly affected by the differences with regard to the natural surroundings and historical development of cities, nor by these cities being developed cities or cities in transition, capitalistic or post-socialist cities, etc. These hypotheses are tested and confirmed in the cases of three capital cities in South and Southeast Europe. Regarding the changes in population density, it can be concluded that central/inner-city municipalities became less populated, with sometimes very significant decrease in population density, but without any land cover change, which indicates 'depopulation'. At the same time, outer-city and peripheral municipalities also suffered a decline in population density, while their urban zones extended.