Undermined territorial capital of Serbia: some future prospects and predictable scenarios

Abstract

The unfortunate events following the late 1980s and the early 1990s directedSerbia (first the FRY and then S&M) towards rather bleak development prospects. During this long period, the country was isolated from the mainstream trends of European integration and convergence. Its comparative advantages and competitiveness have worsened in two key aspects, that is, in terms of its structural qualities (1) and in terms of its territorial capital (2), whereby the country’s “endogenous capital” and “territorial capital” lost a large part of their value and potential. The “soft territorial capital” has especially worsened, in parallel with a disappearing capacity for strategic research, thinking and governance. In particular, Serbia grossly missed the wave of “economic and ecological modernization” that took place in the EU, and which left the country lagging even further behind contemporary mainstream trends. Thus, Serbia has been “moored” even deeper in the periphery of Europe; that is, it became a part of the new “inner peripheries” of Europe. The economic recovery from 2000 onwards, while fairly dynamic, has still been insufficient, and has more or less assumed the form of “growth without development”. Serbia still shelters one of the most dissipating and nonsustainable economies and social services in Europe, paralleled by inadequate spatial development patterns. Now, the country has found itself in the position of an economic, ecological and financial (debtor) semi-colony of few powerful international political, economic and financial actors, also reflecting the ideological model of the post-socialist transition reforms chosen. Recently a new Spatial development strategy of Serbia until 2021 has been completed, which deals with two scenarios for future development, viz.: “further growth recession, under crisis management”; and “sustainable spatial development”. However, much more research of future development prospects is needed, vis-à-vis the current dire development fixities and givens. Namely, the Serbian “post-socialist Argonautics” has faced a number of difficulties, also exacerbated by a lack of adequate institutional and organizational adjustments for strategic development governance, and an almost total collapse of strategic thinking, research and governance.